Microsoft Expects 1 Billion Windows 10 Devices In 2-3 Years

At its Build developer conference today, Microsoft announced that it expects Windows 10, its forthcoming operating system, to run on one billion devices in two to three years. That’s the idea, at least.

The goal is reasonable, given the company’s decision to offer Windows 10 to current Windows 7, 8, and 8.1 users for free, for a year. That, combined with the normal PC sales cycle, and the upgrade of Windows Phone users is how Microsoft gets to the billion device figure.

Keep in mind two things: Microsoft has granted itself quite a lot of wiggle room — a multi-year time frame that has a full year of slack is a pretty wide band. But that’s hardly surprising, given that Microsoft has something at risk in this case. If the company cannot attract a mass of users, quickly developers might pass on building for the platform.

And if developers don’t opt-in, consumers might eschew on using the Windows Store. That cuts downloads, revenue for Microsoft, and, of course, developer incomes. It’s a negatively reinforcing cycle.

The one billion figure is a good stab into the future for Microsoft — who can ignore that amount of potential reach? — but also a benchmark that now must be met. Windows 10 is coming out in a few months, and then for Microsoft, this particular clock begins to tick.

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